Responsible modelling: Unit testing for infectious disease epidemiology

Infectious disease epidemiology is increasingly reliant on large-scale computation and inference. Models have guided health policy for epidemics including COVID-19 and Ebola and endemic diseases including malaria and tuberculosis. Yet a coding bug may bias results, yielding incorrect conclusions and actions causing avoidable harm. We are ethically obliged to make our code as free of error as possible. Unit testing is a coding method to avoid such bugs, but it is rarely used in epidemiology. We demonstrate how unit testing can handle the particular quirks of infectious disease models and aim to increase the uptake of this methodology in our field

Responsible modelling: Unit testing for infectious disease epidemiology

Infectious disease epidemiology is increasingly reliant on large-scale computation and inference. Models have guided health policy for epidemics including COVID-19 and Ebola and endemic diseases including malaria and tuberculosis. Yet a coding bug may bias results, yielding incorrect conclusions and actions causing avoidable harm. We are ethically obliged to make our code as free of error as possible. Unit testing is a coding method to avoid such bugs, but it is rarely used in epidemiology. We demonstrate how unit testing can handle the particular quirks of infectious disease models and aim to increase the uptake of this methodology in our field

What is the relationship between validated frailty scores and mortality for adults with COVID-19 in acute hospital care? A systematic review

Background & aim: The aim of this systematic review was to quantify the association between frailty and COVID-19 in relation to mortality in hospitalised patients. / Methods: Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the grey literature were searched for papers from inception to 10th September 2020; the search was re-run in Medline up until the 9th December 2020. Screening, data extraction and quality grading were undertaken by two reviewers. Results were summarised using descriptive statistics, including a meta-analysis of overall mortality; the relationships between frailty and COVID-19 mortality were summarised narratively. / Results: 2,286 papers were screened resulting in 26 being included in the review. Most studies were from Europe, half from the UK, and one from Brazil; the median sample size was 242.5, median age 73.1 and 43.5% were female. 22/26 used the Clinical Frailty Scale; reported mortality ranged from 14 to 65%. Most, but not all studies showed an association between increasing frailty and a greater risk of dying. Two studies indicated a sub-additive relationship between frailty, COVID-19 and death, and two studies showed no association. / Conclusions: Whilst the majority of studies have shown a positive association between COVID-19 related death and increasing frailty, some studies suggested a more nuanced understanding of frailty and outcomes in COVID-19 is needed. Clinicians should exert caution in placing too much emphasis on the influence of frailty alone when discussing likely prognosis in older people with COVID-19 illness

Identifying component modules

A computer-based system for modelling component dependencies and identifying component modules is presented. A variation of the Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) representation was used to model component dependencies. The system utilises a two-stage approach towards facilitating the identification of a hierarchical modular structure. The first stage calculates a value for a clustering criterion that may be used to group component dependencies together. A Genetic Algorithm is described to optimise the order of the components within the DSM with the focus of minimising the value of the clustering criterion to identify the most significant component groupings (modules) within the product structure. The second stage utilises a 'Module Strength Indicator' (MSI) function to determine a value representative of the degree of modularity of the component groupings. The application of this function to the DSM produces a 'Module Structure Matrix' (MSM) depicting the relative modularity of available component groupings within it. The approach enabled the identification of hierarchical modularity in the product structure without the requirement for any additional domain specific knowledge within the system. The system supports design by providing mechanisms to explicitly represent and utilise component and dependency knowledge to facilitate the nontrivial task of determining near-optimal component modules and representing product modularity

Are bisphosphonates effective in the treatment of osteoarthritis pain? A meta-analysis and systematic review.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis worldwide. Pain and reduced function are the main symptoms in this prevalent disease. There are currently no treatments for OA that modify disease progression; therefore analgesic drugs and joint replacement for larger joints are the standard of care. In light of several recent studies reporting the use of bisphosphonates for OA treatment, our work aimed to evaluate published literature to assess the effectiveness of bisphosphonates in OA treatment

Integrated photonic quantum gates for polarization qubits

Integrated photonic circuits have a strong potential to perform quantum information processing. Indeed, the ability to manipulate quantum states of light by integrated devices may open new perspectives both for fundamental tests of quantum mechanics and for novel technological applications. However, the technology for handling polarization encoded qubits, the most commonly adopted approach, is still missing in quantum optical circuits. Here we demonstrate the first integrated photonic Controlled-NOT (CNOT) gate for polarization encoded qubits. This result has been enabled by the integration, based on femtosecond laser waveguide writing, of partially polarizing beam splitters on a glass chip. We characterize the logical truth table of the quantum gate demonstrating its high fidelity to the expected one. In addition, we show the ability of this gate to transform separable states into entangled ones and vice versa. Finally, the full accessibility of our device is exploited to carry out a complete characterization of the CNOT gate through a quantum process tomography.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Antigen-Specific T-Cell Activation Distinguishes between Recent and Remote Tuberculosis Infection

Rationale: Current diagnostic tests fail to identify individuals at higher risk of progression to tuberculosis disease, such as those with recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, who should be prioritized for targeted preventive treatment. Objectives: To define a blood-based biomarker, measured with a simple flow cytometry assay, that can stratify different stages of tuberculosis infection to infer risk of disease. Methods: South African adolescents were serially tested with QuantiFERON-TB Gold to define recent (QuantiFERON-TB conversion 1 yr) infection. We defined the ΔHLA-DR median fluorescence intensity biomarker as the difference in HLA-DR expression between IFN-γ+ TNF+ Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells and total CD3+ T cells. Biomarker performance was assessed by blinded prediction in untouched test cohorts with recent versus persistent infection or tuberculosis disease and by unblinded analysis of asymptomatic adolescents with tuberculosis infection who remained healthy (nonprogressors) or who progressed to microbiologically confirmed disease (progressors). Measurements and Main Results: In the test cohorts, frequencies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells differentiated between QuantiFERON-TB- (n = 25) and QuantiFERON-TB+ (n = 47) individuals (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.00). ΔHLA-DR significantly discriminated between recent (n = 20) and persistent (n = 22) QuantiFERON-TB+ (0.91; 0.83-1.00); persistent QuantiFERON-TB+ and newly diagnosed tuberculosis (n = 19; 0.99; 0.96-1.00); and tuberculosis progressors (n = 22) and nonprogressors (n = 34; 0.75; 0.63-0.87). However, ΔHLA-DR median fluorescent intensity could not discriminate between recent QuantiFERON-TB+ and tuberculosis (0.67; 0.50-0.84). Conclusions: The ΔHLA-DR biomarker can identify individuals with recent QuantiFERON-TB conversion and those with disease progression, allowing targeted provision of preventive treatment to those at highest risk of tuberculosis. Further validation studies of this novel immune biomarker in various settings and populations at risk are warranted

QCD axion and quintessential axion

The axion solution of the strong CP problem is reviewed together with the other strong CP solutions. We also point out the quintessential axion(quintaxion) whose potential can be extremely flat due to the tiny ratio of the hidden sector quark mass and the intermediate hidden sector scale. The quintaxion candidates are supposed to be the string theory axions, the model independent or the model dependent axions.Comment: 15 pages. Talk presented at Castle Ringberg, June 9-14, 200

TISs-ST: a web server to evaluate polymorphic translation initiation sites and their reflections on the secretory targets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The nucleotide sequence flanking the translation initiation codon (start codon context) affects the translational efficiency of eukaryotic mRNAs, and may indicate the presence of an alternative translation initiation site (TIS) to produce proteins with different properties. Multi-targeting may reflect the translational variability of these other protein forms. In this paper we present a web server that performs computations to investigate the usage of alternative translation initiation sites for the synthesis of new protein variants that might have different functions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An efficient web-based tool entitled TISs-ST (Translation Initiation Sites and Secretory Targets) evaluates putative translation initiation sites and indicates the prediction of a signal peptide of the protein encoded from this site. The TISs-ST web server is freely available to both academic and commercial users and can be accessed at <url>http://ipe.cbmeg.unicamp.br/pub/TISs-ST</url>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The program can be used to evaluate alternative translation initiation site consensus with user-specified sequences, based on their composition or on many position weight matrix models. TISs-ST provides analytical and visualization tools for evaluating the periodic frequency, the consensus pattern and the total information content of a sequence data set. A search option allows for the identification of signal peptides from predicted proteins using the PrediSi software.</p

Species recovery in the united states: Increasing the effectiveness of the endangered species act

The Endangered Species Act (ESA) has succeeded in shielding hundreds of species from extinction and improving species recovery over time. However, recovery for most species officially protected by the ESA - i.e., listed species-has been harder to achieve than initially envisioned. Threats to species are persistent and pervasive, funding has been insufficient, the distribution of money among listed species is highly uneven, and at least 10 times more species than are actually listed probably qualify for listing. Moreover, many listed species will require ongoing management for the foreseeable future to protect them from persistent threats. Climate change will exacerbate this problem and increase both species risk and management uncertainty, requiring more intensive and controversial management strategies to prevent species from going extinct